New Champions League 2024-25 format: How many points are needed to qualify in the ‘Swiss model’?

The competition’s new 36-team ‘Swiss Model’ explained and the league-phase fixtures for Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool and Aston Villa

This season’s Champions League will have a radically different feel and rhythm with Europe’s premier club competition switching to a 36-team “Swiss Model”.
It means four additional teams in the tournament and the end of the group stage, with all the clubs playing in one league.
Each team will have eight fixtures before the knockout stages, four home and four away, against eight different opponents. Two from each of the four pots.
The top eight at the end of the league phase will be straight through to the last 16, with those between ninth and 24th facing an additional two-legged play-off.
This is all you need to know about the new-look competition.
More of a revolution than a revamp. The Champions League group stage will be unlike the ones we have known. It is the biggest change in format for 20 years, since there were two group-stage mini leagues before the knockouts. From tonight the competition is organised according to the Swiss Model. Instead of groups of four, there will be one league of 36 teams. Each team will be drawn to play eight matches against different opponents, half at home and half away.
Uefa has trotted out the usual line about evolving the competition. But the bottom line is that there are four more teams in the group stages and each club gets two more games. More TV broadcasting money, more gate receipts and supporters travelling across the continent. If the competition was not making revenue, would they be adding to the calendar and making the group stage eight games over 10 match-weeks? At the moment there are six match-weeks.
The draw seedings means there will be some big-hitters playing each other in the group stage. Manchester City, for instance, hardly got a mouth-watering draw last season when they faced RB Leipzig, Young Boys and Red Star Belgrade. This season the clubs were split into four pots for the draw and every team got two clubs from Pot 1. 
Among the marquee fixtures are Man City v Inter Milan (September 18), Arsenal v PSG (October 1), Real Madrid v Borussia Dortmund (October 22), Barcelona v Bayern Munich (October 23), Real Madrid v AC Milan (November 5), Inter Milan v Arsenal (November 6), Bayern Munich v PSG (November 26), Liverpool v Real Madrid (November 27), Borussia Dortmund v Barcelona (December 11), Juventus v Man City (December 11) and  PSG v Man City (January 22)
The top eight will automatically qualify for the round of 16, so they could secure a place early and then rest big players for important matches at the weekend. Those finishing between ninth and 24th go into two-legged play-offs. So every place counts. But if a team cannot finish in the top eight, does it matter too much who they face in the play-offs? The battle for 24th will be exciting.
The eight matchweeks are: 
There will be no buffer of the Europa League like years gone by. There will be some jeopardy lost there, as Manchester United were fighting for a Europa League place in their final group match this season. From now, those finishing 25th or below will be eliminated and use that old football adage – concentrate on the league. The Europa League and Europa Conference are also using the Swiss Model format.
Fans will be stretched to afford another trip to add to their schedule. If there are dead rubbers towards the end of the group stage, you could see supporters skipping matches. Uefa has made it pretty tough to get knocked out too. Finishing in the top 24 should not even be a minimum expectation for Premier League clubs. It will be a longer group stage but there are questions whether it adds to the drama of the whole tournament. Only Manchester United v Bayern Munich (1999) and AC Milan v Ajax (1995) saw group-stage matches repeated in the final – but there is a stronger possibility of that happening in this format. There is a bigger chance of repeat fixtures in the knockout stages from earlier in the season.
The Swiss Model was devised for chess, but it is not exactly a system used frequently in football. It is also used in croquet, although a more relevant use would be e-sports. So it is a step into the unknown for Uefa, although it was voted in unanimously so their executives must have faith in it.
Clubs are likely to have to win only around half their Champions League group games to qualify automatically for the last-16 of the revamped competition, according to Opta.
The sports data giant has also forecast that teams are likely to need victories in fewer than a third of their matches to reach the new play-off round.
According to Opta’s calculations, there is a less than 50 per cent chance of 15 points not being enough for a club to secure a top-eight spot in the single group-stage table that has replaced what had been four groups of eight. That would equate to five wins from eight matches, or four wins and three draws.
Opta found there is also a less than 50 per cent chance of nine points not being enough for a club to finish between ninth and 24th in the 36-team table, which would see them qualify for a 16-strong play-off for the right to join the top eight in the last-16. That would equate to three wins, two wins and three draws, or even one win and six draws.
Opta has calculated the probability of different points totals being the cut-off for qualification either straight through to the last-16 or into the play-off round. The most likely individual such cut-off for eighth place was 15 points, which was found to have a 44.934 per cent chance of occurring.
For a place between ninth and 24th, nine points was found to be the most likely cut-off, with a 53.463 per cent chance of occurring.
The revamped Champions League group stage will see clubs play eight fixtures against different opponents, four at home and four away.
The previous format saw teams face six group games against three opponents, playing each one both at home and away.
The new era of Champions League football begins tonight.